Slow death or rapid growth for Second Life?

Both are possible


inden Lab's Second Life is growing. It is where, more and more people get their first virtual world experiences. It is used for many different purposes, both for work and for fun. There are black clouds in the horizon coming.

If Linden Lab plays it right, it can continue to grow in the future too. Here are some of the threats and opportunities analyzed.

The high price of virtual land is not a threat for Second Life's success, even it is many times thought to be one.  

For an end-user the stuff is mostly free, unless he ends up buying clothes, shapes and other stuff for the avatar. I found that making an avatar for business is an effort for a newbie. I ended up having foot size of 72 (or something, anyway quite a big!) and at some point of conversation, others started to ask questions about them... I was embarrassed. 

The one who pays the bill for the virtual land is the company that needs a place for meetings or for collaborating with their users. The virtual land is in fact an expensive cpu, memory and network bandwidth bought for the company. The price is often so low that it is not any kind of a barrier for businesses. 

For a private person or a small company, however, using the virtual worlds for anything is very sensitive to the price. They are already actively looking for Opensim based alternatives like OpenlifeGrid, ReactionGrid and the like - or even self-hosted, which can be the cheapest of all.

Hypergrid

Hypergrid is to Metaverse what link is to Web. One way to view Second Life is to think about it as a web site without out-bound links. It turns out, the reality is even worse. One of the main new components of virtual worlds is the notion of presence in the form of a real-time presentation of the user's character (Avatar). With the realXtend viewer, you can have outbound links from Second Life to Opensim based grids, or to realXtend worlds - the problem is that you need to leave your avatar behind, the one you have spent time and money to make it fit for your needs and to present your character the way you want. 

For the end user, when the masses realize this, there will be a big cry. They emotionally own their avatars, and they want to use those also elsewhere. 

For Linden Lab, it could be a smart move to win back souls of end users by enabling Hypergrid, the possibility to take your SL Avatar and teleport around the world. 

Business needs

Companies want to select their vendors and they don't like to be tied with LL-only technology. If it was easily possible to backup and transfer the company virtual world from vendor to vendor, for example from Second Life to ReactionGrid to self hosted and back to Second Life. It would give the superior position to Linden Lab as the platform company with the most experience in hosting. And companies could trust that in case they are not happy with the hosting, they can pack their stuff and move to another company.

In fact this one needs the hypergrid too so that the companies can get their customers to the new place too!

Conclusion

If Linden Lab decides to open up and join the hypergrid movement, and enable the full backup-restore of the hosted regions, they could really make the 3D web grow. With wise business planning they are in the best position to grab huge portion of the market, without needing to do any walled garden solutions that slow down the growth.

It looks like Opensim is the best thing that has happened to Second Life so far - or the worst, if they decide to continue the walled garden track. For the best of 3D web, Linden Lab and Opensim, I hope Linden Lab will take the strong lead in the current situation and start working with the Open source community, which is developing SL derivative technologies

Article tagged: hypergrid

We recommend that you discuss this article on Think, but if you really want to you can leave a comment right here as well:

22 comment(s) for “Slow death or rapid growth for Second Life?”


Gravatar of Myron Curtis Myron Curtis said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (12:18:42 AM)
I agree that Second Life has a great deal to gain by embrassing the Hypergrid, and not wall themselves off from the inevitable.
However, I would also like to point out that, until very recently,they were supporting the openSim and hypergrid movement.
Gravatar of SP SP said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (9:30:19 AM)
The hypergrid discussion always inevitably leads to the content security discussion... I think what i would like to see is some sort of asset repository or bank where I can pull my assets from - regardless of which grid i'm in.

Interestingly Linden Labs has the credibility to run such a service for all grids - not just second life.
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (10:54:06 AM)
Second Life is dead... There is no content security or IP rights enforcement on Linden Labs grid... Most of the residents of Second Life would love to have land of their own and build on it. But tier fees are just too expensive. I cannot afford $195.00/month for a mainland region or $295.00/month for a private region. But on OSgrid i can run region(s) and have total control. The ability to backup my builds is incredible and Linden Labs refuses to offer such tools. Second Life/Linden Labs is cooked. Stick a fork in them. The future belongs to a distibuted model. Not the "Islamic Republic of Iran" model that Linden Labs is currently implementing. I refuse to support a company that caters to a select group of insiders and does everything possible to make sure only they and their insider groupies make money. With grandfathered tier, no tier, free land, free advertising, etc. they are able to undercut any competition. With opensim/OSgrid everyone pays the same tier fees - absolutely none. And thats what they all fear the most. The ablility of the average joe user to compete on an equal basis. It threatens their control. And just like the government of Iran they will use any means necessary to ensure that they retain that control. Linden Labs has their "basiji militia", and their "revolutionary guards". But it won't work in the long run. Too many other options now. Hope the same greedheads who ruined SL don't attempt to take over OSgrid. That would be a definite shame.
Gravatar of Kevin Tweedy Kevin Tweedy said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (11:05:50 AM)
IF you look at total cost of ownership and experience OpenSim, ReactionGrid and all the others are a year or more away from having a effective cost model with the same user experience. I think this article is just hype and misleading. Sure you can play around on it and do some things. But if SL keeps improving, investing in new technologies they will continue to be the leader in this place. The main competitor I see to SL and OS is browser based virtual worlds that are not so dependent on servers like Blue Mars and Weopia.
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (11:12:27 AM)
Except for vehicles being able to cross region borders, I am doing everything I was doing in Second Life at absolutely no cost to myself. I pay nothing to run 2 regions on OSgrid. The user experience in OSgrid is better than Second Life with improvements being made on a daily basis. Linden Labs/Second Life are no longer leaders, they are followers. And anyone staying on that grid will be left behind technologically speaking. Adapt or Die. ;)
Gravatar of John Jamison John Jamison said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (2:26:04 PM)
I always enjoy reading the "doom and gloom" prophecies of any technology...especially when those folks pass such certain judgment. It brings to mind the voices I remember saying the same thing about the traditional web in the early 90's, video and video conferencing before that, and every other tech change that has come.

SL is six years old. Until two years ago, there were only a few of us there...so that actual age of the active platform is about two. It is primarily still an environment of individuals, making decisions of good & bad based on their individual wants & needs, just as the web was at first. The issues mentioned, moving avs across platforms, costs, IP rights and security...yes, those are issues. And they are the same issues raised about web browsers in the first couple of years of the web.

Of course there will be changes. Rosedale himself has made it very clear that the move is towards a full accessible "grid" of may players; something which SL plans to be an active player in.

I just don't understand the need to be so dramatic with the doom & gloom, nailing coffins shut before the technology is even fully defined yet. And the Linden bashing has certainly grown tiring. I'd rather focus all that energy on the potential of the environments..."what can we do?", rather than on "look what they did!"
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (3:38:47 PM)
I prefer an environment with myself in control of my builds and content. A place where the responsibility over what content my regions contain rests with me. The rules change far too often with Second Life/Linden Labs. They can game the system at will to enrich themselves and their groupies at the average users expense. It's a rigged environment corrupt to the core. For those who prefer a different "user experience" opensim/OSgrid is the place to be. It's wonderful not having to deal with all the drama associated with Second Life. ;)
Gravatar of Prokofy Neva Prokofy Neva said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (9:27:16 PM)
This geeky idea that Second Life is "cheaper" with self-hosting is very narrow-minded and short-sighted.

It might be easy for geeks who have access to servers -- at work, at their university, or through spare parts they build into computers.

But the average person will not be able to "host their own" -- getting T-1 lines, servers, hiring programmers if they can't program and maintain themselves simply because they may earn their living another way.

SO in that sense, Second Life Grid represents a great service with ease of entry where for a relatively low price, given what you get (a 3-d dynamically changing user-generated world and real time communications).

For individuals, too, it makes sense; OpenSim and other geeky things not ready for prime time with no valuation of intellectual property or commerce, and just anarchic sandboxing, are not for the general public or even the sub-set of the general public that finds uses for these worlds.
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Thursday, June 25, 2009 (10:15:50 PM)
Oh, my... The "official" Second Life protester has spoken. The one "banned" from all Linden Labs blogs, forums. Ever notice that Prok never actually calls for abandoning Second Life. Its always the same old same old. Stay with SL, keep paying out the nose for tier, and we must all kowtow to Linden Labs and their vision. No Thanks. They and their insiders have no vision. Just more of the same corrupt way of doing business. ;)
Gravatar of arkowitz arkowitz said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (12:28:41 AM)
We need revolution at the protocol level in order to free the avatars.

MXP! MXP!
Gravatar of arkowitz arkowitz said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (12:30:13 AM)
... in MXP an avatar is just another object owned by a person and injected into a virtual bubble of spacetime ...

http://bubblecloud.org
Gravatar of Khannea Khannea said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (2:51:11 AM)
Just a general curious question - can Linden Lab put out a client version where a client hosts a small patch of virtual real estate on his or her own PC, receives people there (off grid) and where I can have a friend over, and then teleport to that friends mini-sim

...bypassing SL main grid every step of the way ...

...but still retaining all my character possessions, skins, clothes, objects, weapons, the whole shebang?

Such a minisim doesnt need to be big. 25 by 25 meters will do nicely. Capacity for 5 avatars?

...The ability to build and export built structures into the maingrid?

I'd say - turn a version of SL into this - a 3D MSM.

Let kids chat and "do whatever it is they do" away on their private bubbles. If they need new shoes, they'll drop by.

This way you'll get significantly bigger adoption rates.

Oh and be sure to include a door bell ringer - when an avi is not in-world but "IM-bubble" I should be able to send IM.
Gravatar of Bob Flesch Bob Flesch said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (10:48:27 AM)
My 2 cents.. SL will continue to live, but will not be the platform of the future. Single biggest problem, ease of use. Secondly architectural issues such as scaling, content management, and IP.
Many of the early adopters are fed up with content theft, business are starting to realize issues with security of data, scalability, proprietary content(sure code is open source, but your content belongs to them). And so much more..
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (11:15:45 AM)
The biggest single barrier to the average user in SL is cost. Most people just aren't going to pay more than $10/month to access a virtual world and have access to land to build on. The last land parcel I owned was $40/month for a measly 8192 sq meter with only 1,875 prims. I have 45,000 prims on just one of my regions in OSgrid that I pay absolutely nothing for. Thats the power of opensim/OSgrid. It opens up Virtual Worlds for more average joe users who would love to participate but just cannot afford to pay tier fees. Not everyone in the US makes 6 figure salaries, and for users in developing countries around the world the barrier to entry is even worse. If you ever want widespread adoption of Virtual Worlds as the new Web 3.0, this is a must. Linden Labs kept tier fees way too high for way too long and now that alternatives are here I refuse to pay anymore to them. opensim/OSgrid is easy to setup, easy to administer, and I am running 2 regions on a Win XP machine thru a road runner connection. Now with hypergridding coming online, you don't have to be hooked up to a grid. New viewers coming out all the time, new opensim server releases coming out on a regular basis. What's Linden Labs done over the last couple of years - beyond voice chat? lol nothing much at all... ;)
Gravatar of James Cozens James Cozens said on Friday, June 26, 2009 (6:39:08 PM)
I guess to be fair to Linden when you invest so much time and money in developing solutions, you seek to protect that investment. Open source does not mean you don't make a living and as a commercial user of SL with no Linden ties I support them in that. Living in a virtual world sometimes leads people to Utopian thinking - well hello a RL needs real money ;-)
Gravatar of Edge Edge said on Saturday, June 27, 2009 (3:50:01 PM)
I see and agree with what Prokofy is saying. I hear all about the 45,000 prim argument for using OSGrid but when I have used it I found that scripts were lacking, regions crashed easily and there was no community to speak of there. I get less land for my money (I have two premium accounts in SL) but things work so much better. I look for my virtual time to be something that *just works*. Also due to the servers some use the experience on OSGrid is laggy and not enjoyable. Maybe someday but I could get a million prims and 10 regions but if it performs like present day OSGrid it is not worth it.
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Sunday, June 28, 2009 (10:47:40 AM)
Edge maybe its your connection or equipment. My regions never go down unless I shut them down to do upgrades or just restart them for grins. Scripting may not be there yet for vehicles but for the majority of stuff that I have tried it does. Pose Balls, Visitor Lists, Dance Balls, Radios, TV's, etc. The normal everyday stuff that people use all work 100%. Even with a region server running on a regular PC the lag is about the same or in alot of cases better than SL. Not sure what you mean by community? OSgrid is filled up to the brim with wonderful, nice, helpful people. Every type of community you see in SL is represented here. Sailing, Nudists, Star Trek, Vampires, Furries, Racing, Flying,, etc. etc. You just have to seek them out. If you are using the official Second Life viewer to access opensim/OSgrid you may want to try something else. I never have probs with Hippo. Setting up an account with OSgrid couldn't be easier. For those interested please go to osgrid.org. You can choose any first name and any last as long as it isn't already taken. Not limited last names like in SL. Download the Hippo viewer from osgrid.org as well. Look for the "download" link at the top. You can use it to connect to multiple grids. Not just OSgrid or SL. Hope the info helps not just you but anyone that would like to explore opensim/OSgrid. I have a bunch of website links for info on opensim/OSgrid for anyone interested and landmarks for inworld locations for new users to OSgrid. Happy Opensimming! ;)_~~~
Gravatar of rightasrain rightasrain said on Monday, June 29, 2009 (5:15:47 AM)
hypergrid is both a concept of moving around between grids and today a protocol for some limited acheivement of that. But really it is the idea of the metaverse that is most compelling. And the metaverse, like the 2d Web, will be open, free and full of all kinds of content. I think Linden is trying to maintain its "virtual land" business when in fact their prices are going up while there is unlimited capacity and a declining demand for their offerings.
Gravatar of Billie Billie said on Wednesday, July 01, 2009 (2:29:29 AM)
Reason why SL grows is that it allows commercialization. Without which most avatars do know how to spend time their free time, and would evenually leave the virtual world.
Gravatar of Edge Edge said on Wednesday, July 01, 2009 (4:36:14 PM)
Robert,
Thank you for your thoughts on why I found OSGrid to be not to my liking. Connection wise, I am great. I think the lag I experienced was more to do with the servers powering some sims. Of course given the fact some run regions from a PC that may be another factor. What size servers do OSGrid run by the way? I know certain parts are connected to donated servers from Electric Sheep. What are the specs?
On Community. I just logged in again today to recheck my experience. Where are they all hiding out? You say I have to seek them but there again is an argument for SL. I can simply search a term and find tons of groups and sims for what I am looking for. I am not saying OSGrid is horrible, just that it has from what I can tell a VERY long way to go before it would equal the ease of use and stability of SL. On further reading up I see every sim owner has god tools like Lindens have. If that is true the security seems less then what I can see in SL. It is just not for the person who wants things to for the most part just work. I know what OSGrid seems to be trying for but I am just not sure the majority of Second Life users will want in. That is just my opinion as one of those average users. Have fun above all. :)
Gravatar of Robert Graf Robert Graf said on Thursday, July 02, 2009 (12:20:00 AM)
Edge, Always here to help noobies find their way around OSgrid. ;) Laggy servers are all over Second Life. How many Class 4 Servers still exist on Linden Lab's Grid? The servers run by OSgrid seem to work just fine. Inventory comes up, able to chat, instant message, groups, rez stuff, teleport, etc. Search is working for the most part in OSgrid. It all depends on what community you are looking for. lol Stability is a very big issue with Second Life as well. I crash more using Second Life's viewer on their grid than I do using Hippo/OSgrid. Where are all the objects being stolen/copied come from? Aren't they all coming from Second Life? It's Linden Lab's Security that is the problem. lol For myself, I have had more fun over the last couple of months in OSgrid than I had in SL for a very very long time. I love building for myself and my friends and knowing that a third party like Linden Labs can't come along and take away everything i have worked for and built. I want myself and my friends to profit from any business ventures I or they start. I don't want to share any profits from those ventures with a third party like Linden Labs. If OSgrid benefits from my builds and the bizs I start then its a win-win for both of us. I sleep well knowing that my regions, assets, and builds are all mine now. I can move them all at will to any public grid or hypergrid that I choose. Linden Labs and OSgrid for that matter have no control over me or anything I do in Virtual Worlds from now on. Freedom.... Its awesome! ;)_~~~
Gravatar of c3 c3 said on Wednesday, July 22, 2009 (7:01:42 PM)
funny, i had freedom building virtual worlds on the web for a decade until- you of the class of SL 2006- decided that ONLY SL was the "only" way to go....and were so certain of it in all your blogs and conference speaking engagments..:)

freedom though has COSTS, and frankly, the attitude toward non coded IP shown here , will not fit the bills for any of your "new" ideas.:)

how many spent time and money building 3d vr worlds online before SL and a few magazine article thay paid for in 2006?

if you didnt ask why.