Part two of the two-part series- this post will focus exclusively on the peril of virtual worlds.
When I pulled out my handy-dandy
Webster's New World Dictionary to further define my term of peril-
other words that stood out were: danger, jeopardy, and exposure to
harm. So I thought to myself- could virtual worlds really be so
ominous? Forrester Research (http://www.forrester.com/rb/research)
recently reported that "only 11% of enterprises have adopted
virtual worlds to augment their work." With all of the press on
virtual worlds- is this number really accurate… it seems
like such a stark contrast to the numbers previously posted in The
Promise of Virtual Worlds where we stated the following numbers
from K Zero (http://www.kzero.co.uk/blog/):
"By the end of this year we'll be
at the 150 mark for total worlds. We forecast this number to double
by the end of 2010."
"Combine all of this and we get
to our 2012 forecast of 900 virtual worlds."
"We forecast 2012 revenues to
reach $6bn and 2013 to hit $9bn."
We've seen Google Lively and Weblin
enter the virtual world scene and then quickly fold- will more
follow suit? So does the infamous tagline from Field of Dreams-
"If we build it, they will come" really stand true
for all virtual worlds (well it might if they don't go bankrupt
first). First of all virtual worlds are not created equal- although
most all of them hold promise in different respects, will that be
enough to sustain and prosper? The primary reason for some
virtual worlds closing is the lack of funds generated- if a virtual
world is free to users- there must be a valid business model
underpinning the endeavor. Without such a model- will virtual
worlds be able to continue. Sure lots of users are in-world and
building communities but that ultimately doesn't bring home the
bacon. Whereas if a virtual world company branches out- such as
Second Life with branding opportunities or Blue Mars with the
Smithsonian maybe success will ensue. What could possibly lead to
the peril of virtual worlds as we know them? Although mainstream
adoption may be a little ways out I wouldn't say that the perils
outweigh the potential of virtual worlds. If a company makes a name
or carves a niche then the opportunity for high-level success is
there. But in today's economic times there are a lot more companies
that go bankrupt before success is reaped. So I am sure that we
will see more virtual world companies enter and then exit the scene
for lack of funding.
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